Better together? Ukraine and Russia’s contrasting trade alliances

Posted on August 5, 2014 by Ruth Green

Here is my latest column for IBA Global Insight:

After months that have seen widespread demonstrations, bloodshed, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, snap elections and ongoing turmoil in Ukraine, it is easy to forget that it was the decision by former President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out of a much-anticipated trade pact with the European Union that sparked the protests in the first place.

Wind on nine months and the EU has signed an association agreement with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Russia has also forged ahead with expanding its own trade relationships and signed the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) with Belarus and Kazakhstan. As the fallout from the tragic downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine on 17 July continues and relations across the EU and beyond become increasingly strained, the question remains: is it always better, together?

Lourdes Catrain, Vice-Chair of the IBA International Trade and Customs Law Committee and director of Hogan Lovells’ European international trade and investment group, believes the June association agreement signed between the EU and Ukraine is a significant step for European trade relations. ‘It’s important to remember that it was the proposed Ukrainian association agreement with the EU that triggered the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and which shows that Ukraine has made a strong bet for the EU,’ she says.

‘The association agreement with the EU shows that at least, a very large part of the population in Ukraine is prepared to follow the EU. Given the size of Ukraine that’s an important message. [Although] Georgia and Moldova have much smaller economies, it’s significant that the three of them have joined what could become a very deep association with the EU.’

Published on 04-08-14. Read on here

Five key takeaways on Russia’s relations with the West

Posted on August 1, 2014 by Ruth Green

Here’s my latest blog for Huffington Post UK:

After months of fraught relations between Russia and the West which have seen a flurry of tit-for-tat sanctions triggered by the growing unrest in Ukraine, the final straw seemed to come with the suspected downing on 17 July of flight MH17 over Ukraine by pro-Russian separatists.

Under growing international pressure to act, on 29 July the EU finally confirmed it was imposing ‘stage three’ sanctions against Russia. Here are the five key takeaways on Russian relations with the West in recent weeks:

1. Press reaction to MH17 disaster – differing views

Many of the European, American and Asian newspapers led with the story:

Although as UK broadsheet The Guardian was quick to point out, many Russian newspapers relegated news of the accident to the bottom of the page:

Although pro-Kremlin Russian tabloid Tvoi Den did lead with a more dramatic image, the caption told a startlingly different story: Donetsk People’s Republic Authorities Claim Plane Destroyed by a Ukrainian Buk Missile:

Reflecting the shockwaves felt across the Netherlands, which suffered the most losses, Dutch daily nrc•next was noticeably more reserved: Last night in eastern Ukraine, a plane crashed. On board were 300 people, 154 of them were Dutch:

Published on 01-08-14. Read on here

Crises highlight energy dependency concerns

Posted on June 6, 2014 by Ruth Green

Here is my latest column published in IBA Global Insight:

The current turmoil in Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines in Europe, but the ripple effect has been felt much further afield. ‘The crisis in Ukraine has once again shown a close correlation between extreme political volatility and energy markets,’ says Pablo Alliani, Chair of the IBA Section on Energy, Environment, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Law and senior partner at Alliani & Bruzzon Abogados in Argentina. ‘Globalisation has interconnected the energy markets in such a manner that a crisis of this sort in any part of the globe will affect the whole world, regardless of any distance.’

For Alliani, there is cause for concern much closer to home: in Venezuela, where civil unrest and political demonstrations continue. ‘Venezuela’s role as one of the region’s leading oil producers means that a crisis in the country would have regional and international ramifications if the oil flow were disrupted,’ he says.

Although protests have been concentrated in the country’s main cities, far away from key production centres such as the Orinoco Belt, Lake Maracaibo and Monagas, the disorder threatens to destabilise the global energy market further. ‘In this respect,’ Alliani adds, ‘even if the oil industry remained insulated, prolonged unrest could severely affect Venezuela’s economy, with major consequences for its key trading partners.’

Published on 06-06-14. Read on here

BP seeks to bring Russian adventure with TNK to an end

Posted on July 12, 2012 by Ruth Green

Here is my latest piece published in the IBA Global Insight newsfeed:

When the news came last month that BP was looking to end its Russian tie-up with TNK, few people were surprised.

BP has long been wracked by disputes between its Russian shareholders and this was no clearer than during the Rosneft debacle last year. In January 2011, BP and state-owned Russian energy company Rosneft shocked the world by signing a US$16bn share swap deal to jointly exploit oil and gas reserves in Russia’s Arctic shelf. The deal would have made Rosneft the largest single shareholder in BP, but it was not to be.

Alfa-Access-Renova (AAR), which owns 50 per cent of TNK-BP, claimed that the terms of the share swap deal were in violation of its shareholder agreement, which clearly stipulates that BP must carry out all projects in Russia and the Ukraine through TNK-BP. AAR filed a lawsuit and after retaining Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom, went on to obtain an injunction on the deal in London’s High Court in April last year.

Published on 12-07-12. Read on here

Rosneft embraces new western partner after abortive BP deal

Posted on September 2, 2011 by Ruth Green

Here is my latest piece published in the IBA Global Insight newsfeed:

The news this week that ExxonMobil has signed a deal with Rosneft to explore oil and gas reserves in Russia’s Arctic shelf has ruffled more than a few feathers.

As IBA Global Insight reported earlier this year, after initial excitement, BP and Rosneft’s momentous US$16bn share swap deal quickly fell apart following a dispute with Russian investors in TNK-BP (BP’s existing Russian joint venture).

BP was eventually forced to pull out of the tie-up in May and the fiasco was an embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had previously endorsed the deal.

Published on 02-09-11. Read on here

Ruth Green

International Freelance Journalist

Category Archives: Energy

Better together? Ukraine and Russia’s contrasting trade alliances

Five key takeaways on Russia’s relations with the West

Crises highlight energy dependency concerns

BP seeks to bring Russian adventure with TNK to an end

Rosneft embraces new western partner after abortive BP deal