Biden-Putin meeting signals testing time for US-Russia relations

‘Reset’ is often the term used to describe a fresh start in diplomatic relations. After a tumultuous period for US-Russia relations it seemed particularly significant that President Biden met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva during his first foreign presidential trip in June.

The meeting followed the G7 Summit in Cornwall – the first face-to-face gathering of major world leaders since the start of the pandemic – and the NATO Summit in Brussels. It also came in the wake of escalating Western sanctions against Russia for egregious human rights violations, namely the poisoning and detention of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

It was the first time the two nations’ presidents had met since June 2018. Sir Tony Brenton, who served as UK Ambassador to Moscow from 2004-2008, believes the discussions were largely fruitful. ‘You have to allow for the fact that there are always going to be really quite sharp disagreements, with the West criticising Russia’s domestic behaviour and some of Russia’s external behaviour,’ Brenton tells Global Insight. ‘Conversely, Russia has now found it in itself to criticise what’s going on in America. But both sides set out their positions and, usefully, both sides made clear their red lines. They agreed to talk further on actually the two most important things that they have to talk about: strategic nuclear weapons and cyber.’

Published on 04-08-21. Read on here

Covid-19: Latin America’s deepest crisis for a century foments major change

Across Latin America and the Caribbean, more than one million people have already died from Covid-19, making it the worst-hit region worldwide. The reasons are complex but, undeniably, have exposed deep inequalities across the region’s 33 countries.

Latin America’s excess death toll – those that exceed the number that normally occur over a given period – has rocketed. The failure by many countries to establish an effective public health strategy has been compounded by overwhelmed and underfunded health systems and social protection mechanisms that have not responded adequately to the enormity of the crisis.

The slow response – or in some instances complete inertia – of many nations has sealed their fate. ‘Governments in certain countries adopted a position of denying the pandemic and not establishing policies to control it,’ says Fernando Peláez-Pier, former IBA President and a senior consultant at FPeláez Consulting.

Published on 27-07-21. Read on here

Pressure mounting to adopt ‘nuclear option’ against economies of authoritarian regimes

The forced diversion of a plane carrying a Belarusian opposition journalist on 23 May sparked international outcry. As global powers resolve to take action, there are doubts about the efficacy of sanctions against authoritarian regimes.

The subsequent removal and arrest of Roman Protasevich from a grounded plane in Minsk prompted calls to punish Belarus, where officials, including the country’s leader Alexander Lukashenko, already face sanctions from multiple states for rule of law violations.

Despite recent efforts to sanction the country, Oksana Antonenko, Director, Global Risk Analysis at Control Risks, says the international community has been powerless to stop the egregious human rights violations being committed by the authorities. ‘We’ve seen now almost a year of really severe repression and violence against its people on a daily basis, including arbitrary arrests, beatings and torture,’ she says. ‘That’s happening in the middle of Europe. Of course, sanctions have been applied, but they so far have done nothing to stop these activities within Belarus.’

Published on 15-06-21. Read on here

Brexit Protocol reaches flashpoint

On 3 May 1921, the Government of Ireland Act 1920 came into force, drawing a border on the island of Ireland for the first time. Legislators at the time could not have predicted the situation that is currently facing Northern Ireland, a century after partition.

The Northern Ireland Protocol, the part of the UK’s Brexit withdrawal agreement that creates a de facto border in the Irish Sea, has prompted resentment and widespread protest. The slogan ‘No Irish Sea Border’ can be seen on walls and lampposts from Londonderry to Larne.

The deal replaced the already-controversial Irish border backstop, designed to guarantee an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland regardless of the final terms of the Brexit deal.

Published on 27-05-21. Read on here

Ukraine’s war on two fronts

This is my latest feature piece for IBA Global Insight:

Natural gas pipeline Photo Harald Hoyer Over the past 18 months, Ukraine hit the international headlines time and again as it battled months of widespread demonstrations, bloodshed, the annexation of Crimea, snap elections, the downing of Flight MH17 and a tumbling currency,  the beleaguered hryvnia. The country’s long-running spat with Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom, which has a monopoly over the European gas market, has also been well documented since the feud first began ten years ago.

Ukraine is still largely reliant on gas from Russia and disputes over payments have crippled supply numerous times over the past decade as the two countries continue to come to contractual blows. The pipeline that transits the country also carries around half of Gazprom’s exports to the rest of Europe, meaning that the problems have also been felt much further afield.

Over the years, contracts between Russia and Ukraine have been signed, amended and restructured in an unregulated and often arbitrary way. This finally came to a head last year when Gazprom launched a case against Ukraine’s state-owned gas utility, Naftogaz, in the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce (SCC), claiming the Ukrainian company owed it billions of dollars in unpaid debts on gas delivered since 2009.

Published on 07-08-15. Read on here