Category Archives: Eastern Europe

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

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Despite weeks of escalating tensions, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in the early hours of 24th February shocked the world. Just days earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was recognising the rebel-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Up to that point, a full-scale invasion had seemed almost inconceivable, but suddenly Europe was faced with its largest conflict since the Second World War.

In this Global Insight podcast, we look at the background to the Ukraine crisis, Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign and the role of sanctions in fighting aggression and autocracy.

Examining these issues are:

  • Olga Lautman, an expert in Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe and a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
  • Bill Browder is CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and a long-time supporter of stronger sanctions against Russia.
  • Daria Kaleniuk, executive director and co-founded of the Anti-Corruption Action Centre in Kyiv (AntAC).

Released on 03-03-22. Listen here

Ukraine: United front against Russian aggression needed to combat autocracy

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After weeks of rising tensions on Ukraine’s borders and clashes on the ground, on 21 February Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was recognising the rebel-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states and ordered troops into the country.

As many as 200,000 Russian soldiers had reportedly been deployed along Ukraine’s borders in recent days, making the threat of a Russian invasion dangerously imminent. World leaders threatened to impose tough sanctions on Moscow. But as diplomatic negotiations show no sign of overcoming an impasse the influx of Russian troops, under the pretext of ‘peacekeeping duties’, suggests a full-scale invasion is now inevitable.

Following Russia’s incursion and subsequent annexation of Crimea in 2014, there were growing concerns that President Vladimir Putin would use the escalating situation in eastern Ukraine as a ‘false flag’ attack to justify invading the two separatist territories. Parallels have also been drawn with the 2008 Russo-Georgia war, when Russia invaded Georgia after violence broke out between Georgian troops and South Ossetian separatists.

Published on 22-02-22. Read on here.

Belarus: The human cost of the crackdown on dissent

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An escalating crackdown on civil society following 2020’s disputed presidential election in Belarus – which saw Alexander Lukashenko claim victory – has already provoked international sanctions. Now, the country’s continued attacks on fundamental freedoms are exacting a significant human cost, as a migrant crisis unfolds on the country’s border with Poland.

In June 2021, President Lukashenko rejected EU calls to stop the flow of illegal migrants to the country’s border with the EU. This followed global powers imposing more sanctions against Belarusian officials in response to the removal and arrest of opposition journalist Roman Protasevich, from a grounded plane in Minsk.

A stream of migrants has flooded into Belarus since August after the government relaxed visa requirements for certain countries. By November, thousands of refugees, mainly from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, were stranded at the Belarus-Poland border. Many became embroiled in violent clashes with Polish police. At least nine migrants died due to freezing conditions and a lack of humanitarian aid.

Published on 07-01-22. Read on here.

Pressure mounting to adopt ‘nuclear option’ against economies of authoritarian regimes

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The forced diversion of a plane carrying a Belarusian opposition journalist on 23 May sparked international outcry. As global powers resolve to take action, there are doubts about the efficacy of sanctions against authoritarian regimes.

The subsequent removal and arrest of Roman Protasevich from a grounded plane in Minsk prompted calls to punish Belarus, where officials, including the country’s leader Alexander Lukashenko, already face sanctions from multiple states for rule of law violations.

Despite recent efforts to sanction the country, Oksana Antonenko, Director, Global Risk Analysis at Control Risks, says the international community has been powerless to stop the egregious human rights violations being committed by the authorities. ‘We’ve seen now almost a year of really severe repression and violence against its people on a daily basis, including arbitrary arrests, beatings and torture,’ she says. ‘That’s happening in the middle of Europe. Of course, sanctions have been applied, but they so far have done nothing to stop these activities within Belarus.’

Published on 15-06-21. Read on here

Russia attacks fundamental freedoms and rule of law as Navalny’s network targeted

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The international community breathed a collective sigh of relief on 23 April when opposition leader Alexei Navalny ended a 24-day hunger strike in prison after finally receiving medical care. Yet ongoing efforts to suspend his political organisation and restrict other fundamental freedoms threaten to cripple Russia’s already deteriorating human rights situation.

On 26 April, the Moscow prosecutor’s office ordered Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and its regional network to suspend all activities, pending a court ruling on whether to designate the opposition group as ‘extremist’.

The move, which would give the authorities the power to arrest FBK staff, supporters, and even crowdfunding donors, was yet another nail in the coffin for the ailing Kremlin critic, who was imprisoned in February on a range of charges shortly after returning from Berlin where he received treatment for Novichok poisoning.

Published on 24-05-21. Read on here